Conflict in Iran continued over the weekend, driving oil futures sharply higher on Monday. In response to geopolitical risk and higher oil prices, equity markets have been volatile with the Australian market down almost 5% from the peak, the US market off around 3% however down less than 1% for the year. Futures markets expect the oil price to fall in the coming quarters, likely pricing in some combination of Trump losing interest and declaring victory, or sufficient military intervention in the Strait to make it again safe for shipping. In this month’s market insight, we assess the economic impact of a protracted war and disruption to the oil market.
Conflict in Iran continued over the weekend, driving oil futures sharply higher on Monday. In response to geopolitical risk and higher oil prices, equity markets have been volatile with the Australian market down almost 5% from the peak, the US market off around 3% however down less than 1% for the year. Futures markets expect the oil price to fall in the coming quarters, likely pricing in some combination of Trump losing interest and declaring victory, or sufficient military intervention in the Strait to make it again safe for shipping. In this month’s market insight, we assess the economic impact of a protracted war and disruption to the oil market.
Conflict in Iran continued over the weekend, driving oil futures sharply higher on Monday. In response to geopolitical risk and higher oil prices, equity markets have been volatile with the Australian market down almost 5% from the peak, the US market off around 3% however down less than 1% for the year. Futures markets expect the oil price to fall in the coming quarters, likely pricing in some combination of Trump losing interest and declaring victory, or sufficient military intervention in the Strait to make it again safe for shipping. In this month’s market insight, we assess the economic impact of a protracted war and disruption to the oil market.
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